by Tucson Realtor - Michael Krotchie on October 20, 2011
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Headlines in newspapers can be misleading — especially with respect to housing figures. Media coverage of the most recent Housing Starts data serves as an excellent illustration.
Wednesday, the Census Bureau released its September Housing Starts report. In it, the government said that national Housing Starts rose 15 percent in September as compared to August 2011, tallying 658,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis.
The September reading is the highest monthly reading since April 2010, the last month of last year’s home buyer tax credit.
The sudden surge in starts is big news for a housing market that has struggled of late, and the press was eager to carry the story. Here is a sampling of some headlines:
- U.S. Housing Starts Rise 15%, Hit 17-Month High (MarketWatch)
- Home Building Jumps 15% in September (ABC)
- New Construction Surges In September (LA Times)
These headlines are each accurate. However, they’re also misleading.
Yes, Housing Starts did surge in September, but if we remove the “5 or more units” grouping from the Census Bureau data — the catgory that includes apartment buildings and condominium structures — we’re left with Single-Family Housing Starts and Single-Family Housing Starts rose just 1.7 percent last month.
That’s a good number, but hardly a great one. And for home buyers and sellers throughout Las Vegas and nationwide, it’s the Single-Family Housing Starts that matter most. Individuals like you and I don’t buy entire apartment buildings. Most often, we buy single-family homes. Therefore, that’s the data for which we should watch.
The good news is that media tales work in both directions.
Building Permits dropped 5 percent last month when the volatile 5-unit-or-more-units category was included from the math. Isolating for single-family homes, we find that permits were unchanged.
This is good housing because 82% of homes begin construction within 60 days of permit-issuance, hinting at a steady, late-fall housing market.
by Tucson Realtor - Michael Krotchie on August 19, 2011
Below is a compilation of Real Estate related resources that I’ve come across during the week that are good reads for anyone in the market to buy or sell a home.
- September bottom seen for housing prices (AZStarnet)
- Homebuilder Confidence Sags; Doors Open For Ready Buyers (The Mortgage Reports)
- Industry Opinions Weigh In on Extended Forecast for Short Sales (RISMedia)
- Foreclosures fall for 10th straight month (CNN Money)
- Existing-home sales slip amid tight credit (MSNBC)
by Tucson Realtor - Michael Krotchie on August 18, 2011
Below are some highlights from the July Statistics courtesy of the Tucson Association of Realtors:
- Total Sales Volume dipped a little this month by 11.27%, but is up 27.93% from July 2010.
- Average Sales Price increased by 3.57% from June.
- The Average List Price of $181,603 is up 4.21% from June’s number of $174,262.
- Total Unit Sales decreased 14.33% from June, but increased 41.92% from July 2010.
- Median Sales Price decreased slightly to $125,000.
- Active Listings showed a slight decrease of 2.77% from June.
Overall the market continues to improve. Total unit sales is significantly up from last year and a rise in list price signals higher competition from buyers.
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by Tucson Realtor - Michael Krotchie on March 14, 2011
Below are some highlights from the February Statistics courtesy of the Tucson Association of Realtors:
- Total Sales Volume increased significantly from $130,258,440 in January to $160,319,228 in February, an increase of 23.08%!
- Average Sales Price is up 9.22% from January.
- Average List Price of $191,957 showed an 8.43% increase over January.
- Total Under Contract had a 12.87% increase from January.
- Total Unit Sales rose by 12.69%, from 780 in January to 879 in February, and by 18.62% compared to January 2010.
- The Median Sales Price went from $134,250 in January to $137,000 in February with a total increase of 2.05%
Overall the market continues to improve. Total volume is significantly up and a rise in list price signals higher competition from buyers. Although median sales price rose only slightly it is expected to lag statistically until higher list price homes close escrow.
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