Below is a compilation of Real Estate related resources that I’ve come across during the week that are good reads for anyone in the market to buy or sell a home.

1. September bottom seen for housing prices (AZStarnet)
2. Homebuilder Confidence Sags; Doors Open For Ready Buyers (The Mortgage Reports)
3. Industry Opinions Weigh In on Extended Forecast for Short Sales (RISMedia)
4. Foreclosures fall for 10th straight month (CNN Money)
5. Existing-home sales slip amid tight credit (MSNBC)

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I read several mortgage blogs in addition to my normal real estate blog reading and during the past week  the mortgage market has gone pretty bonkers (even the Wall Street Journal thinks so). Over the past several months we have seen a steady decline of mortgage rates but recently rates have spiked. Take a look at the chart below:

If you are in the market for a home and area waiting to lock in a rate (like me) or are still on the fence about refinancing your loan now seems to be the time to do it. I have spoken with a couple loan officers I work with and they have not shown much confidence in rates remaining low in the near term.

Check out this excerpt from TheMortgageReports.com latest post, I would highly recommend taking a quick look if you want to learn more about how mortgage rates are determined:

Mortgage rates are as volatile as they’ve been all year.

After the Federal Reserve announced its $600b QE2 program to support bonds, markets caught whiff of pending inflation. The concern sparked a major MBS sell-off that drive rates from all-time lows to a 10-week high in just 5 days.

And it’s not just that rates are moving — it’s how fast they’re moving.

Comparing average daily price changes in the MBS market:

• January 1 – November 8, 2010 : 26 basis points per day
• The last 5 days of trading : 60 basis points per day

Mortgage lenders are issuing up to 4 rate sheets per day now. That means that the price quote you took in the morning is likely expired by noon. It expires two more times during the course of the day, too.

If anyone needs some loan officer information feel free to contact me and I’ll send some information your way.

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Great news residents of NW Tucson! Tomorrow marks the grand opening of the fabled Twin Peaks Interchange (formerly known as the Camino de Manana project). This interchange has been a long time coming; I remember talk of it being done back in 1998 when I moved to Continental Ranch.

The communities who will benefit most from this new interchange will be those in Continental Ranch, Continental Reserve and Dove Mountain, although many other residents will be able to take advantage of the new ramp. One immediate benefit is that traffic congestion at the Cortaro road exit should decline as more cars decide to use the Twin Peaks exit.

Here is a brief history courtesy of the AZ Daily Star:

TIMELINE

• April 5, 1988: The town adopts the Continental Ranch Specific Plan, in which the developer mentions a future freeway interchange at Twin Peaks but doesn’t include any funding method for it.
• Jan. 23, 2001: Marana creates its first impact fee to fund its estimated $14 million portion of the interchange.
• June 2001: The Arizona Department of Transportation puts the interchange on its agenda.
• September 2004: The project’s design concept report is completed.
• April 11, 2006: Final design of the project plans begins.
• April 2009: Contractor bids are opened, with Phoenix-based Pulice Construction Inc. winning the contract.
• May 11, 2009: Town conducts a groundbreaking for the Twin Peaks interchange.
• Today: Town and local dignitaries will hold a ribbon-cutting to mark completion.
• Friday: New interchange and road are open to traffic.

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Search parameters: Property type Residential Income Status of ‘Closed’; Sold Date between ’11/1/2008′ and ’11/1/2020′; Property Sub-Type of ’2 Plex’, ’3 Plex’, ’4 Plex’, ‘Apartment’, ‘Comb’.

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I always like to take a look at the higher end listings in Tucson because, well, we don’t have that many of them. This week we have three listings over $5,000,000 and here is the one I like the best.

We're sorry, but we couldn't find MLS # 20906804 in our database. This property may be a new listing or possibly taken off the market. Please check back again.

On the off chance any of my readers would like to purchase the above property, contact me!

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Looks like the previously abandoned Saguaro Springs project is getting new life. I wrote about this community three years ago when it was being developed but the timing of KB Homes was terrible and it the community of 2,500 planned homes did not get past three model homes that were constructed.

From an article in the Arizona Daily Star:

In 2006, the square-mile project was hailed as an up-and-coming residential development as it moved through Marana permitting processes.

Roads were paved and some infrastructure was put in, and KB Home built three model homes.

By April 2008, project partner Empire Land LLC, of California, had declared bankruptcy.

Last year, KB Home tore down the vacant and gutted models, citing liability concerns.

Now, Scottsdale-based Grayhawk Development is developing the land for a company called Marana 670, which bought the note.

Since development was halted three years ago building codes have apparently changed and the new company will be spending a lot of time bringing things that were already completed up to current code.

I drive by this development two or three times a week on my way to Continental Reserve (soon to change with the opening of the Twin Peaks Interchange) and I’m glad to see something finally happening, for awhile the only progress I saw was the slow deaths of the palm trees that lined the main roads in the community.

Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

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Over the past several days there has been growing media coverage regarding the ineptitude and lack of oversight with the large banks (*gasp*) in regards to foreclosures. Specifically that the sheer number of people facing foreclosure is so overwhelming that bank personnel have been blindly signing foreclosure paperwork without reviewing each individual file to verify that a foreclosure is both warranted and justified.

Here are some articles to catch you up:

I spoke with two banks yesterday (Chase and Bank of America) to status a couple of my short sale listings and asked them about what they were hearing on their end. Surprisingly, they shared with me what their higher-ups had flowed to them; that this was just a temporary issue and they would be back at full strength by “mid-month.”

Both bank reps gave me the same story, independently, so I’m guessing the big cheeses got together in  a room and figured out how to deal with our old Uncle Sam. This latest media storm doesn’t seem to have them worried just yet so we’ll wait and see how big the fallout is.

I mean, it’s just unwarranted foreclosures we’re talking about, right? Besides, our Tucson Foreclosures map needs more color anyway.

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I was reading the Las Vegas Review Journal today and saw an article that showed new construction home prices have fallen to a ten year low, pushed downward by a glut of short sales and foreclosures in the Vegas market. They just couldn’t compete with the lower priced properties and have finally decided to be realistic about market pricing and match what buyers have been seeing in the housing market for months.

I took a look at some similar statistics for Tucson and found some interesting results. Below are the new home construction pricing statistics from ten years ago (2000):

Statistical Market Analysis 2000

I then began tracing statistics from 2004 forward figuring that was just before the enormous bubble was encountered. Below are the year by year stats with the average price per square foot highlighted; I think this is the best overall stat to track as a benchmark.

Statistical Market Analysis 2004

Statistical Market Analysis 2005

Statistical Market Analysis 2006

Statistical Market Analysis 2007

Statistical Market Analysis 2008

Statistical Market Analysis 2009

Statistical Market Analysis 2010 (Year to Date)

Conclusion

From looking at the average price per square foot we can see that we are indeed approaching new home pricing from ten years ago but we aren’t quite there. It is likely that we may reach that level next year, however, and I think the sooner we reach that point the better.

Now the question is, what does that really mean? I suppose it is less of a benchmark and more of a wait-and-see because it isn’t really a predictor of the market as much as a state of the market.

I think prices will come down a bit more as short sales and foreclosures are still prevalent in our market but only time will tell.

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