Tucson Real Estate
Tucson Real Estate Analysis – March 2009 Statistics – An Encouraging Month
April 19, 2009 by Tucson Realtor - Michael Krotchie · Leave a Comment
The Tucson Association of Realtors released their March 2009 MLS Statistics report recently and, just like the report from last month, it paints an encouraging (if bland) analysis of MLS activity during March.
Here are the main highlights from the report:
.. For the third month in a row we see a leveling off from nearly every perspective.. If this trend (less listings/more sales) continues, we’ll start to absorb some of that excess inventory.
The median sales price is down 10% year over year and only moved fractionally from February to March. This is in direct contract to national reports that show a continued downward spiral in values. Our market usually out performs other parts of the country during this season and this year is no exception.
There is a definite lack of equilibrium in the housing market despite historically low interest rates and increased affordability. Buyers at all price points are hesitant to move forward. Are we close to the tipping point? It’s very possible.
The bottom line is the market is still flat here in the Old Pueblo, which is still being hailed as a good thing by nearly everyone. I think once the first few fence sitting buyers make a move the floodgates will eventually open to return the market to a proper activity level.
March 2009 Absorption Rate
Current Absorption Rate for the Tucson market stands at 9 months.
“Absorption Rates” means the average number of homes sold per month over a particular period of time. It is a solid indication of market conditions and predicting how long a property may be on the market before being sold.
At 9 months the absorption rate for March 2009 is a definite improvement over the 12.4 month absorption rate we saw in February.
What constitutes a Buyers Market, a Sellers Market and a Neutral Market?
The amount of inventory determines market sway. A “Neutral Market” is 6 months of inventory. Anything less than that is a “Sellers Market”, and conversely, an inventory of more than 6 months is a “Buyers Market.”
Even with a relatively uneventful month Tucson appears to be on the path to recovery. As I wrote in my February 2009 MLS Statistics post last month I think the Tucson market will continue to remain relatively anemic until mid-summer when things will being to actually pick up.
There it is folks, Tucson MLS Statistics for March 2009. To view the full report click here.
Stay tuned for next month’s April 2009 Statistics report!
Tucson Real Estate Analysis – February 2009 Statistics
March 9, 2009 by Tucson Realtor - Michael Krotchie · 1 Comment
The Tucson Association of Realtors released their February 2009 MLS Statistics today and it paints an encouraging (if bland) analysis of MLS activity last month.
Here are the main highlights from the report:
When comparing this year to ‘08 we see very moderate declines and a big improvement over the January comparison… This leveling off indicates we are experiencing more predictable activity and less drama.
The median sales price is now $178,000, 11% lower than last year but remarkably close to the ‘05 median sales price of $186,500. It appears that realistic pricing is a strategy that’s taking hold.
Our current listing inventory counts are very encouraging. We now have 7,532 active listings as opposed to February ‘08 when we had 9,168. That’s a 17.84% reduction and if you compare it to the mere .75% drop in sales you can see that we’re gaining ground.
The bottom line is that it was a pretty boring month. Which, in this market, is good news (funny how that works isn’t it?).
February 2009 Absorption Rate
Current Absorption Rate for the Tucson market stands at 11.4 months.
“Absorption Rates” means the average number of homes sold per month over a particular period of time. It is a solid indication of market conditions and predicting how long a property may be on the market before being sold.
At 11.4 months the absorption rate for February 2009 is an improvement over the 13 month absorption rate we saw in January.
What constitutes a Buyers Market, a Sellers Market and a Neutral Market?
The amount of inventory determines market sway. A “Neutral Market” is 6 months of inventory. Anything less than that is a “Sellers Market”, and conversely, an inventory of more than 6 months is a “Buyers Market.”
Tucson still is in the throes of a Buyer’s market but appears to be on the path to recovery. As I wrote in my January 2009 MLS Statistics post last month I think the Tucson market will continue to remain relatively anemic until mid-summer when things will being to actually pick up.
There it is folks, Tucson MLS Statistics for February 2009. To view the full report click here.
And for those of you who are wondering what the jousting image at the top of this post has to do with MLS statistics, the answer is.. nothing. BUT, the Arizona Renaissance Festival is in full swing and if you have a chance I would recommend stopping by!
Tucson Short Sales – Part 4 – The Offer Is In To The Bank
January 17, 2009 by Tucson Realtor - Michael Krotchie · Leave a Comment
This is the fourth installment in my Tucson Short Sales series, I would suggest reading part one (Tucson Short Sales – Part 1 – What are Short Sales?) part two (Tucson Short Sales – Part 2 – I’m Ready to Short Sale My Home.. What Are The Repercussions?) and part three (Tucson Short Sales – Part 3 – How to Short Sale My Home) before reading this article.
After the offer has been submitted to the bank (typically to someone in the Loss Mitigation department), your file will probably be assigned to an intermediary or negotiator. These people have many files just like yours on their desks and their job is to evaluate each offer to see if it warrants further consideration. Many banks have a bottleneck at this stage in the process and simply cannot keep up with the number of short sale packages coming across their desks.
The bank has to know what the actual market value of the home is before it can intelligently evaluate a buyer’s offer. They will usually order an appraisal or Broker Price Opinion (BPO) to determine the market value of the property which will help them decide which course of action to take with an offer (accept, reject, counter).
The next step in the process is usually the one that takes the longest. After a valuation of the property has been completed and the offer has been deemed complete the holder of the note has to decide what to do.
You see, many times a mortgage has been resold by your mortgage company to an investor or group of investors (whether individually or in a “bundle” or other mortgages). When this is the case (the bank doesn’t hold the mortgage note), the investor(s) has to evaluate the offer and choose either to accept, reject, or make a counter-offer.
This step can be even further complicated when there are multiple lenders (80/20 or 80/10/10 loans, for example).
The short sale process typically takes no less than 30 days. There are some lenders, smaller ones usually, who can respond more quickly to an offer. I have seen short sales take seven months from contract submission to close of escrow, and I have seen countless short sales that have gone to foreclosure because the bank did not respond soon enough. This is definitely the most stressful and frustrating part of the short sale process because it involves waiting. And more waiting. And then, more waiting. Sometimes you’ll get lucky and have a responsive lender but nine ten out of times you won’t.
For the next step in the Short Sale process (End Game Short Sales) stayed tuned!
- Tucson Short Sales – Part 1 – What are Short Sales?
- Tucson Short Sales – Part 2 – I’m Ready to Short Sale My Home.. What Are The Repercussions?
- Tucson Short Sales – Part 3 – How to Short Sale My Home
- Tucson Short Sales – Part 4 – The Offer Is In To The Bank
- Tucson Short Sales – Part 5 – End Game Short Sales
If you would like to search the Tucson MLS for Short Sale, Bank-Owned, or Foreclosure homes, search for Tucson Homes for Sale or contact me for a comprehensive list.
If you would like assistance in avoiding foreclosure feel free to contact me for a no-cost consultation.
Tucson Short Sales – Part 3 – How to Short Sale My Home
July 27, 2008 by Tucson Realtor - Michael Krotchie · 2 Comments
This is the third installment in my Tucson Short Sales series, I would suggest reading part one (Tucson Short Sales – Part 1 – What are Short Sales?) and part 2 (Tucson Short Sales – Part 2 – I’m Ready to Short Sale My Home.. What Are The Repercussions?) before reading this article.
Since I wrote the first two articles in this series the Senate and House passed a Housing Rescue Plan that President Bush is expecting to enact. In short the bill will allow many homeowners who are in financial distress and who purchased a home between January 2005 and June 2007 to essentially refinance their home to 90% of the market value of their home. Read the article about the Housing Rescue Plan here.
We will continue with the assumption that you (the homeowner) has decided to proceed with the short sale process. Because the process is generally complicated with many timelines and necessary documentation, several Consumer Resource Groups have sprung up to assist homeowner’s. If you are considering a short sale please call call one of the below agencies first for FREE assistance/advice on whether a short sale is your best option.
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Counseling Resources for Struggling Homeowners
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Once you’ve resolved to go ahead with a short sale the process is relatively simple. You market the home as you normally would in a home sale, have showings, entertain offers, etc. Once you have an accepted offer, it is then submitted to the bank along with whatever documentation the lender requires; together this is generally called a “short sale package”.
Once a completed “file” is submitted the bank will then assign the file to a “negotiator” or “intermediary”. These processors generally have many files on their desk at one time and much of the timeline is eaten up here. For the next step in the Short Sale process stayed tuned!
- Tucson Short Sales – Part 1 – What are Short Sales?
- Tucson Short Sales – Part 2 – I’m Ready to Short Sale My Home.. What Are The Repercussions?
- Tucson Short Sales – Part 3 – How to Short Sale My Home
- Tucson Short Sales – Part 4 – The Offer Is In To The Bank
- Tucson Short Sales – Part 5 – End Game Short Sales
If you would like to search the Tucson MLS for Short Sale, Bank-Owned, or Foreclosure homes, search my Tucson MLS or contact me for a comprehensive list.
If you would like assistance in avoiding foreclosure feel free to contact me for a no-cost consultation.
Surprise! First Magnus Broke the Law!
July 23, 2008 by Tucson Realtor - Michael Krotchie · Leave a Comment
I knew that sooner or later the First Magnus debacle was caused not only by questionable lending pratices but also on other, less obvious, means. After nearly a year since their collapse we find out that First Magnus violated Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) by paying mortgage brokers incentives to assist them with originating FHA loans.
For those of you who aren’t part of the real estate industry, what they did was blatantly ILLEGAL!
The Arizona Daily Star just published this article regarding First Magnus and they will be publishing an expanded article in tomorrow’s paper. A quick excerpt:
HUD found that First Magnus paid $58,571 in incentives from Jan. 1, 2003 to Dec. 31, 2005 to seven brokers for the origination of 169 FHA-insured mortgages totaling more than $24 million, according to the report.
Tomorrow’s edition should detail these illegal activites and hopefully pinpoint these crooked mortgage brokers. And all this while First Magnus has re-opened shop as Stonewater Mortgage Corp.
Kind of makes you sick, doesn’t it?
I've lived in the Old Pueblo for more than a decade and have an intimate knowledge of Tucson as well as the surrounding areas. I go hiking and traveling whenever I have a break from real estate (which isn't often enough!) and enjoy taking in an Arizona sunset while relaxing in my backyard. 
