Consumer Resources, Tucson MLS Statistics

Phoenix Housing Prices Lower Than Tucson

Yep you read that headline right, check out this article from today’s Arizona Daily Star.

Meanwhile, in Tucson, the median price of a resale home in January was $160,000, said John L. Strobeck, who tracks real estate data for Southern Arizona.

“I sort of look at Phoenix as being like Tucson, but on steroids,” Strobeck said. “They have higher and lower swings.”Most in the housing and real estate business described the pricing flip as an anomaly that eventually will adjust back to normal as the market stabilizes. But at least one analyst wondered if the recent steep decline in prices for the Phoenix market spells trouble for home prices in Tucson.

Both markets have seen sharp declines in prices, but Maricopa County’s market has plunged much further because there was far more speculative development and there have been far more foreclosures.

“The market was hot in the Phoenix, Maricopa County, Pinal County area much sooner and longer than it was in Tucson,” said Jay Butler, director of realty studies at ASU. “Tucson was just beginning to get into the hypermarket when this whole thing started to collapse.”

….

Strobeck, who compiles and analyzes Southern Arizona housing data as owner of Bright Future Business Consultants, also sees no connection between what is happening in Phoenix and in Tucson.”I don’t think Tucson follows Phoenix in much of any way at all. They are two different markets,” he said.

“I think once we get through all this, we will go back to ‘normality.’ And I think probably just because of the fact that Phoenix’s population is greater — they have more churn of companies and better job creation than we do in Tucson — we will eventually go back to where (pricing) was.”

I’ve done some business with John Strobeck and respect his analyses of market conditions. His comparison of Phoenix being like Tucson on steroids is spot on (in my opinion) especially considering that foreclosures are already beginning to thin out in the Tucson market.

It will be interesting to see just how far housing prices fall in Phoenix especially as it appears that Las Vegas is still feeling the after-effects of the housing boom. Median prices there dropped 48% year-over-year and the number of foreclosures continues to rise.

If Phoenix is Tucson on steroids, then maybe Las Vegas is Phoenix on steroids? Guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Tucson MLS 24-Hour Change Statistics

New Listings	29
Back on Market	5
Price Increases	2
Price Reductions	35
Contingents	15
Pendings	13
Solds	11
Expireds	46
Inactives	15

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